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C00002 00002	shackl[f81,jmc]		The Shackleton Project for a one way trip to the moon
C00005 00003		On January x, 190y, Sir Earnest Shackleton placed the following
C00007 00004		The object of Project Shackleton is to establish a permanent
C00014 00005	Notes to be incorporated later
C00018 00006	A PROPOSAL FOR A FOUNDATION TO BEGIN COLONIZATION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM
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shackl[f81,jmc]		The Shackleton Project for a one way trip to the moon

	It seems feasible to begin the colonization of space with a
one way trip to the moon by one or two people who would stay there permanently
supported by unmanned supply missions.  If possible the two people would
be a married couple who would have children there.

	This memo is based on discussions held 1981 September 26 among
Danny Hilles,
Rod Hyde,
John McCarthy,
Marvin Minsky and
Lowell Wood
about the possibility of a non-profit organization to collect donations
for and organize such a mission.  The mission would be based on one
or two Shuttle launches.  The lower bound for the cost of the mission
is estimated to be $100 million, and the upper bound of what might
be raised is $500 million based on the amount raised by large universities
in 5 year campaigns.

	Such a mission requires a break with the present NASA doctrine
of absolutely minimizing risk.  Anyway, given the present demands for
Government economy, NASA is unlikely to undertake such a mission in
this century.  NASA's co-operation, at least to the extent of selling
Shuttle launches, is required, however.

	The lunar settlers would be on their own except for advice
and resupply at intervals of several years.
	On January x, 190y, Sir Earnest Shackleton placed the following
advertisement in the Times of London.

"Men wanted for hard dangerous work at low pay.  Some chance of fame."

Shackleton was recruiting for one of his Antarctic expeditions.

	On May xx, 1980, Robert Frosch, then Administrator of NASA,
 stated in response to
questions at a press conference

"There is no way the United States could return to the  moon in
the 1980s."

	When he was reminded that the decision to go to the moon
in the 1960s was made in 1960, he said

"It's not the same country."

	We believe that Shackleton's spirit can accomplish what
Frosch's spirit cannot.  Not only can we go to the moon, but we
can stay there, i.e. make a permanent settlement.
	The object of Project Shackleton is to establish a permanent
human (American) presence on the moon.  The U.S. Government, because
of escalating costs of existing social commitments is not able to
undertake this project at present and has no plans to do so in this
century.   Therefore, Project Shackleton proposes to undertake the 
project privately with the aid of donations from individuals and
foundations and the co-operation of NASA and perhaps the U.S. Air
Force.

	Because it is not a Government project, it must be carried
out in the most austere way, accepting hardships and dangers more
like those of early explorers than those connnected with recent
Government undertakings.

	We recognize that this is a high risk undertaking for
everyone involved, and especially for those who will risk their
lives.  However, it is important to us that space colonization start
in this century.  It is important to the world to recreate a
frontier.  It is important to the survival of humanity that it be
dispersed.  It is important to America and the free world to find
ways of getting around the obstacles to devoting resources to these
important objectives.

	We do not now know what the enterprise will cost or
how much money and effort can be donated.


The Plan

	We plan a one way expedition to the moon by two people,
tentatively a married couple, who would stay on the moon probably
for the rest of their lives and have children there if conditions
permitted.  The Shackleton Project will undertake to resupply them
every two or three years and enlarge the colony if conditions
warrant and finances permit.

	The present plan calls for placing six tons, including the
colonists, their equipment and supplies, on the moon - probably
at one of the Apollo sites where certain equipment may be
cannibalized and the vehicle may be repaired and used.  A Shuttle
launch to low earth orbit will be purchased from NASA.

	If transportation to geosynchronous orbit can be purchased from
NASA (not presently available), this will be done.  Otherwise, the
expedition will use its own rocketry from low earth orbit.  If a low earth
orbit base is available, it will be used to check out equipment.

	Unmanned resupply rockets using the same technology will be
used.  We expect that survival will require resupply at least
every eight years, but we hope to extend the facilities with a
rocket every two or three years.

	We propose to use solar cells for power and split water
into H2 and O2 for night time use in fuel cells.  Umbrellas will
be sued for shade during the day and insulation for warmth at night.
Life support equipment with partial recycling of air and water and some
attempt to grow food will be based on existing NASA studies.

	The present austere budget is $100 million including
$30 million for the Shuttle launch.  More detailed estimates
will be given later, but the commmittee will still attempt to
raise the money if the estimated costs stay under $400 million.
After the first landing, more money will have to be raised for
resupply.

	Our belief that the money can be raised is based on the
idea that many people are like ourselves in wanting the first
steps toward human settlement of space taken in this century.


"Business plan"

1. From estimates committee which will collect relevant NASA studies,
refine cost estimates and prepare a nominal plan.

2. Form scientific review committee to review estimates and lend their
reputations to a feasible plan.

3. Incorporation and nomination of a Board of Directors.

4. Select president who will be in charge of personnel, external
relations and fund raising.

5. Select technical director.

6. Begin fund raising.

7. The project is non-profit but there may be opportunities to defray
some of the costs by

	a. TV, etc. rights

	b. publicity connections

	c. contract research on the moon

Remark: The club of large donors might be called "The Baltimore Gun
Club" after the group who financed the expedition to the moon
imagined by Jules Verne.
Notes to be incorporated later

1. An initial document should spell out some scenario involving digging
a shelter, determining if local material can be made airtight, perhaps
by solar melting, or whether it can be made strong enough to serve
as roof.

2. Some scenario involving increasing recycling lessening requirement
for supplies.

3. Scenarios involving interaction with the prospective lunar materials
projects and solar power projects and O'Neill style projects.  Ours
can do research for them - for pay.

4. Eventually (say after 25 years) we will get tired of supporting
the lunar colonists, and they will have to make it on their own.

5. What is the minimal mass that can support a person, using technically
sophisticated recycling.  There is no proof that it is much larger than
the mass of the person.

6. A solar flare shelter must be constructed quickly.

7. The project can be contrasted with O'Neil's.  He envisaged an
enormous Government project to create environments so that people
could lead utopian lives in an earthlike environment.  The environmental
goals were determined first and costs were then estimated with maximum
We propose the minimal equipment compatible with survival.  The
budget is determined by what can be raised privately.  We may have
to decide to wait until technology and NASA have further advanced
to bring the costs within reach of what can be raised.

8. Further variation on the Shackleton theme.  (The whole Shackleton
theme may be too flashy, but I think something that will contrast
the spirit of the project is important.  Project Emigrant is another
possible name).  Anyway the gimmick.  We place the following ad in
job ads section of NYT.

Wanted: Engineers and scientists for hard unpaid part-time work.
Expenses reimbursed stingily or not at all.  Your ideas subject
to criticism by people whose lives may depend on their correctness.
Some chance of fame.  Reply box nnn.

The idea is to use volunteer (bootleg) engineering to the extent that such
work can be co-ordinated and made useful.
The nature of the project might or might not be public at the time
of the first ad, but respondents would get a description.  It will
again contrast with the usual aerospace ad.
A PROPOSAL FOR A FOUNDATION TO BEGIN COLONIZATION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM
IN THIS CENTURY

	Humanity will eventually expand throughout the solar system and
beyond.  The present authors are among those who would like it to begin in
our lifetimes.  We would like America to play a leading role, and we can
think of many good reasons why the American people should be willing to
spend several percent of our GNP in order to realize the goal.  Many good
proposals have been made for NASA to begin the colonization of the solar
system.  All these proposals have costs like that of the Apollo Project,
although some of them have prospects of repaying the costs by minerals
from space or solar power satellites.

	Unfortunately, it seems quite possible and even likely that
projects will not be undertaken soon, perhaps not even in this century -
at least not in the United States.  Some people have no interest in space
colonization - often combined with an opposition to technology in general.
Others would favor space colonization but want to postpone it at least
until the Government budget is under control.  Still others believe it
should be undertaken only when and if private industry finds it
profitable.

	We present a proposal for beginning space colonization
whose costs may be small enough to be raised from private donations,
i.e. a few hundred million dollars, which corresponds to the amounts
raised over a five year period by major university fund drives.
However, it requires a quite different style than that of NASA and
the Soviet space program - a style more like that of the explorers
of past centuries and the colonists of America.

	The basic relevant technological fact is the following.  The
cost of a space mission is proportional to the payload and is
exponential in the total velocity change required.  Therefore, missions
that require return are enormously more expensive than one way missions.

	We propose a one way mission to the moon (or alternatively
to an asteroid).  The travelers will be resupplied as necessary but
return will not be provided for.  In other words they will be emigrants
to the moon or the asteroid.  If possible, they will comprise one
or more couples who will have children there.

	The following considerations are relevant:

	1. The project will not be managed by NASA but by a private
foundation.  It will be able to demand more of its participants in
work and risk.

	2. The costs of the mission depend on the mass requirement.
We have not yet developed an estimate of these costs but hope for
a preliminary  reasonable estimate in a few months.

	3. We will rent shuttle launches for the first stage to
low earth orbit - unless we can persuade Congress to donate them.
If NASA has suitable rocketry to move appropriate payloads to
geosynchronous orbit we will buy this service also.

	4. If the mission is to the moon, we will use the RL-10
rocket rocket engine that can put six metric tons on the moon
starting from a shuttle launch.  This depends on NASA carrying
out present proposals to "shuttle qualify" spacecraft based
on this engine.
If the mission is to an
asteroid, then an ion rocket seems appropriate.

	5. It is probable that a single Shuttle launch can carry
both the emigrants and supplies for several years.  An alternate
possibility is that an unmanned supply rocket is sent first and
the emigrant rocket second.

	6. Preliminary computations indicate that the Foundation
will have about five years to raise the money for the resupply
mission.

	7. There have been many NASA studies concerned with long
term life support in space or on the moon or an asteroid.  Some
of these systems involve partial recycling of air, water and food
and others don't.  We plan to use the most suitable of the systems
studied.

	8. The major problems of long term life on the moon are

	a. oxygen supply. 2 kilograms per day per person.  Recycling
will make a large difference.

	b. water.  Substantial recycling is not very difficult.
Without it a person requires a kilogram per day.

	c. food.  A person requires 1.5 to two kilograms per day
of wet food.  Dried food requires considerably less.

	d. temperature control.  We propose digging in combined with
umbrellas in the day time and insulation at night.
The evaporative system used in Apollo is unsuitabile for long missions.

	e. mobility.  Perhaps the Apollo vehicle can be revived if
the landing is at one of the Apollo sites.  Perhaps a new vehicle
will be required.

	f. repair of equipment.  Here is where risks will be taken.
Repair equipment and supplies will be provided, but the lives of
the emigrants will depend on their ability to make prompt repairs
when required.

	8. If the Government is inspired to participate, we won't
object.  We will also welcome the participation of foreign governments
or individuals who can contribute substantially to the project.

	9. Perhaps the most decisive break with the past will be in
the spirit of the expedition.  Compare the following approaches of
Earnest Shackleton to Antarctic exploration on the one hand to that
of Robert Frosch, the former NASA Administrator on the other.

[quotes from Shackleton and Frosch.  See page two of the current draft].


	10. There will be no difficulty in getting volunteers
for emigrants.  The psychological problem will be that so few
can be accepted.  Former Government astronauts may be the
best qualified.

	11. We will also be able to get technical people
and managers with high reputations.


Business plan

	1. Preliminary estimates of the mass and cost requirements of
the two possible missions.  Three months.  Hyde and Hilles.
Search for relevant NASA and industry studies.

	2. Preparation of more detailed proposal by the present group
with co-option of suitable interested people.

	3. Presentation of the plan to influential sponsors who will
endorse the idea.

	4. Up to this point all effort will be voluntary.

	5. Formation of preliminary finance, publicity committees and
technical committees based on wide publicity.

	6. Another year of amateur effort.

	7. The beginning of professional fund raising, lobbying and
technical planning.  The selection of a project director, etc.


Queries

	1. What additional participation should be solicited?

	2. It seems to me that a plan to raise money by donation
has to be kept quite separate from efforts to get something as part
of the Government space program or as a private money-making venture.
Both of those are fine if they succeed, but this is a different kind
of beast.